What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 58¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 60% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 58%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Mentions

Trump Monthly on Kalshi

If Zohran / Mamdani, or a plural or possessive form of Zohran / Mamdani, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

58%

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

83% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
58¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.47	59.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump say "Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac" before Dec 1, 2026? · Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	16,881	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Dividend / Stimulus" before Dec 1, 2026? · Dividend / Stimulus	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,568	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "E15" before Dec 1, 2026? · E15	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	9,589	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "UFC" before Dec 1, 2026? · UFC	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,831	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Filibuster" before Dec 1, 2026? · Filibuster	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,069	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Eli Lilly" before Dec 1, 2026? · Eli Lilly	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,606	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Nvidia" before Dec 1, 2026? · Nvidia	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,875	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Dec 1, 2026? · Zohran / Mamdani	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	1,134	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Peptide" before Dec 1, 2026? · Peptide	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	928	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" before Dec 1, 2026? · Rare Earth	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	873	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" before Dec 1, 2026? · Golden Dome	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	801	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Dec 1, 2026? · Ceasefire	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	572	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Autism" before Dec 1, 2026? · Autism	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	85%	488	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Ozempic / GLP-1" before Dec 1, 2026? · Ozempic / GLP-1	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	447	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing" before Dec 1, 2026? · Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	368	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "SMR / Small Modular Reactor" before Dec 1, 2026? · SMR / Small Modular Reactor	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	340	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Whistleblower" before Dec 1, 2026? · Whistleblower	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	93%	297	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "TrumpRx" before Dec 1, 2026? · TrumpRx	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	254	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Manufactured Housing" before Dec 1, 2026? · Manufactured Housing	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	228	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Aluminum" before Dec 1, 2026? · Aluminum	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	155	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Stablecoin" before Dec 1, 2026? · Stablecoin	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	130	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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