What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which states will Trump visit this year? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Wyoming after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of <person>, ABC, Fox News, official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CNBC, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>, official government sources of <area>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota before Jan 1, 2027? · Minnesota	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	24,129	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027? · Colorado	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	7,523	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Maine before Jan 1, 2027? · Maine	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	5,443	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana before Jan 1, 2027? · Louisiana	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	3,953	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Jan 1, 2027? · Hawaii	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,224	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Washington before Jan 1, 2027? · Washington	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	2,895	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Arkansas before Jan 1, 2027? · Arkansas	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	2,542	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Indiana before Jan 1, 2027? · Indiana	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	1,932	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico before Jan 1, 2027? · New Mexico	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,740	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire before Jan 1, 2027? · New Hampshire	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,028	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Utah before Jan 1, 2027? · Utah	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	940	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Vermont before Jan 1, 2027? · Vermont	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	682	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Wyoming before Jan 1, 2027? · Wyoming	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	470	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Missouri before Jan 1, 2027? · Missouri	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	448	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Idaho before Jan 1, 2027? · Idaho	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	285	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Massachusetts before Jan 1, 2027? · Massachusetts	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	251	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Rhode Island before Jan 1, 2027? · Rhode Island	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	40	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon before Jan 1, 2027? · Oregon	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	19	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit West Virginia before Jan 1, 2027? · West Virginia	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	17	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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