What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 16% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which states will Trump visit this month? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Texas on or after Nov 1, 2026 and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of Donald Trump, ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the state, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives, Semafor, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The Guardian, official government sources of the state, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

31% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.98	15.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Dec 1, 2026? · Alaska	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,634	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Dec 1, 2026? · Hawaii	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	407	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit New York before Dec 1, 2026? · New York	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	238	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before Dec 1, 2026? · Georgia	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	42	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Michigan before Dec 1, 2026? · Michigan	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	38	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Texas before Dec 1, 2026? · Texas	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	0	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania before Dec 1, 2026? · Pennsylvania	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	0	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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