What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.87.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 19% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Trump call on John Thune to resign as Senate Majority leader? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, official social media accounts verified by the platform, official press release distribution services, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, official government websites where such statements may be posted, the Associated Press, Reuters, official websites of <persons>.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

36% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	22,978	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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