What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 23% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Trump visit the U.S. Capitol? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the U.S. Capitol after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of Donald Trump, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Washington, D.C., CBS, NBC, official government sources of the United States Congress, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

43% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.73	23.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump visit the U.S. Capitol before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	2,133	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit the U.S. Capitol before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	15	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.