Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week? on Kalshi
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Nov 8, 2026 to Nov 14, 2026 is below 60, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Roll Call.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump make below 60 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · <60 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 15,991 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 80-99 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 8,995 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 60 and 79 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 60-79 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 8,055 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make at least 220 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 220+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7,841 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 100-119 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 7,445 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 120-139 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 4,035 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 160-179 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,814 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 200-219 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,739 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 140-159 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,021 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts the week of Nov 8, 2026? · 180-199 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,773 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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