Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Number of Trump Truth Social posts today? on Kalshi
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Nov 9, 2026 is below 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Roll Call.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump make between 5 and 9 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 5-9 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,286 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 10 and 14 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 10-14 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,157 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 15 and 19 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 15-19 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 643 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make below 5 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · <5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 627 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 20 and 24 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 20-24 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 298 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make at least 40 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 40+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 222 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 30 and 39 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 30-39 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 150 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump make between 25 and 29 Truth Social posts on Nov 9, 2026? · 25-29 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 136 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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