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Tesla KPI on Kalshi
If Tesla reports Above 225000 total deliveries in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 47 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla report Above 475,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 475,000 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 6,661 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 300,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 300,000 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,147 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 450,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 450,000 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 4,890 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 10 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 10 GWh | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 3,278 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 375,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 375,000 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,758 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 500,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 500,000 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2,583 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 350,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 350,000 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 2,565 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 400,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 400,000 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,540 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 425,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 425,000 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2,255 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 8 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 8 GWh | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,013 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 475,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 475,000 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,717 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 450,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 450,000 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,559 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 425,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 425,000 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,027 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 24 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 24 GWh | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 872 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 400,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 400,000 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 778 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 325,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 325,000 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 595 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 16 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 16 GWh | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 528 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 22 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 22 GWh | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 520 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 30 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 30 GWh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 438 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 18 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 18 GWh | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 416 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 350,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 350,000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 285 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 525,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 525,000 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 251 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 325,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 325,000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 215 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 26 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 26 GWh | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 200 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 20 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 20 GWh | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 200 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 14 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 14 GWh | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 194 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 525,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 525,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 156 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 20 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 20 GWh | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 145 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 12 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026? · Above 12 GWh | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 88 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 12 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 12 GWh | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 71 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 8 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 8 GWh | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 21 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 16 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 16 GWh | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 14 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 225000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 225000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 250000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 250000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 275000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 275000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 28 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 28 GWh | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 18 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 18 GWh | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 10 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q1 2027? · Above 10 GWh | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 575,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 575,000 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla report Above 550,000 total production in Q1 2027? · Above 550,000 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 47 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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