Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Big Sky monthly snowfall on Kalshi
If the total snowfall accumulated at Big Sky Resort, Montana during December 2026, in inches, as reported by OnTheSnow, is strictly greater than 50 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: OnTheSnow - Big Sky.
Market says (typical open contract)
84%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 5 inches | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 53,110 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 50 inches | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 31,650 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 10 inches | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 20,715 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 15 inches | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 11,118 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 40 inches | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 8,015 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 45 inches | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 7,954 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 20 inches | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,663 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 35 inches | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 2,326 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 25 inches | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,951 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
| Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? · Above 30 inches | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 398 | Jan 01, 06:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.