What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Who will be cast in show on Kalshi

If William Franklyn-Miller is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico, The Hollywood Reporter.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

20% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rudy Pankow be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Rudy Pankow	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	302	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Rebecca Ferguson be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Rebecca Ferguson	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	122	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ben Barnes be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Ben Barnes	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	116	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will William Franklyn-Miller be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · William Franklyn-Miller	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	110	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Avantika be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Avantika	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	106	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will David Harbour be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · David Harbour	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	92	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Louis Partridge	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	32	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Lee Pace be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Lee Pace	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	28	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Finn Wolfhard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Finn Wolfhard	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	3	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Sadie Sink be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Sadie Sink	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Rosamund Pike be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Rosamund Pike	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Mimi Keene	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Malia Baker	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Lorenzo Zurzolo	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Lola Tung	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Lena Headey be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Lena Headey	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Kit Connor be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Kit Connor	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ian Somerhalder be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Ian Somerhalder	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Hannah Waddingham be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Hannah Waddingham	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Gavin Casalegno be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Gavin Casalegno	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Felix Mallard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Felix Mallard	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Freya Allan be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Freya Allan	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Emily Alyn Lind be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Emily Alyn Lind	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Dafne Keen be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Dafne Keen	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Deva Cassel be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Deva Cassel	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Courtney Eaton be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series? · Courtney Eaton	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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