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Which TV shows will be Cancelled this year? on Kalshi
If Jimmy Kimmel Live! is cancelled before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, the Associated Press, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Variety.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled? · Jimmy Kimmel Live! | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 27,425 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Which shows will be cancelled this year? · Late Night With Seth Meyers | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 7,154 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Which shows will be cancelled this year? · The View | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5,883 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Which shows will be cancelled this year? · The Daily Show | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 3,767 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Which shows will be cancelled this year? · South Park | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,944 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Which shows will be cancelled this year? · The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,428 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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