What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 35¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.28.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 37% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 35%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Kalshi

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 is above 59,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Market says (typical open contract)

35%

Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

70% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
35¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.28	36.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 57,500 MW? · Above 57,500 MW	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	225	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 58,500 MW? · Above 58,500 MW	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	201	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 58,000 MW? · Above 58,000 MW	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	162	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 59,000 MW? · Above 59,000 MW	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	153	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 51,000 MW? · Above 51,000 MW	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	1	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 57,000 MW? · Above 57,000 MW	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 56,500 MW? · Above 56,500 MW	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 56,000 MW? · Above 56,000 MW	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 55,500 MW? · Above 55,500 MW	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 55,000 MW? · Above 55,000 MW	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 54,500 MW? · Above 54,500 MW	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 54,000 MW? · Above 54,000 MW	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 53,500 MW? · Above 53,500 MW	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 53,000 MW? · Above 53,000 MW	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 52,500 MW? · Above 52,500 MW	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 52,000 MW? · Above 52,000 MW	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 51,500 MW? · Above 51,500 MW	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 50,500 MW? · Above 50,500 MW	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on November 9, 2026 be above 50,000 MW? · Above 50,000 MW	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 05:55 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.