Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Unemployment on Kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 5.0% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in November? · Above 4.2% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,149 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in November? · Above 5.0% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,039 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in November? · Above 4.0% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 6,023 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in November? · Above 4.1% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,861 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in November? · Above 4.3% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,902 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in November? · Above 4.9% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,507 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in November? · Above 4.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,203 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in November? · Above 3.7% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,126 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in November? · Above 3.8% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,948 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in November? · Above 4.6% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,228 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in November? · Above 4.8% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,972 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in November? · Above 4.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,851 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in November? · Above 3.9% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,583 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in November? · Above 4.7% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 540 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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