What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 19¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.83.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 20% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 19%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

U.S. unemployment rate at year-end on Kalshi

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 is above 9.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Market says (typical open contract)

19%

Median YES price across 165 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

38% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
19¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.83	20.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2030 be above 10.0%? · Above 10.0%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	5,700	Jan 10, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	4,428	Jan 08, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	2,730	Jan 08, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2029 be above 10.0%? · Above 10.0%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1,600	Jan 04, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,292	Jan 08, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 9.0%? · Above 9.0%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,251	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.5%? · Above 9.5%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,002	Jan 05, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2031 be above 10.0%? · Above 10.0%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	902	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 9.0%? · Above 9.0%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	902	Jan 05, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 8.0%? · Above 8.0%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	700	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 10.0%? · Above 10.0%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	502	Jan 05, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 9.5%? · Above 9.5%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	501	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 8.5%? · Above 8.5%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	500	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0%	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	405	Jan 08, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5%	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	178	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	155	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0%	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	107	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0%	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	51	Jan 05, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0%	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	29	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0%	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	16	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 9.0%? · Above 9.0%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	4	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 7.5%? · Above 7.5%	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	3	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5%	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	2	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	2	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 3.0%? · Above 3.0%	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 9.5%? · Above 9.5%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 9.0%? · Above 9.0%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 8.5%? · Above 8.5%	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 8.0%? · Above 8.0%	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 7.5%? · Above 7.5%	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 7.0%? · Above 7.0%	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 6.5%? · Above 6.5%	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5%	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0%	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 3.0%? · Above 3.0%	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2032 be above 10.0%? · Above 10.0%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jan 07, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 9.5%? · Above 9.5%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 8.5%? · Above 8.5%	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Jan 09, 13:29 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 165 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.