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Round Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Villarreal is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026-27 Champions League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 144 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PSG qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · PSG | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 2,029 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona qualify for the Champions League Final? · Barcelona | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,306 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will PSG qualify for the Champions League Final? · PSG | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,194 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Arsenal | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,028 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will PSV Eindhoven qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · PSV Eindhoven | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 972 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid qualify for the Champions League Final? · Real Madrid | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 869 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Barcelona | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 813 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Stuttgart | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 811 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Galatasaray qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Galatasaray | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 787 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Fenerbahce qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Fenerbahce | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 713 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Real Madrid | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 693 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal qualify for the Champions League Final? · Arsenal | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 586 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Bayern Munich | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 580 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Inter qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Inter | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 577 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Aston Villa qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Aston Villa | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 529 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Stuttgart | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 445 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Liverpool | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 425 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City qualify for the Champions League Final? · Manchester City | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 376 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Fenerbahce qualify for the Champions League Final? · Fenerbahce | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 375 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich qualify for the Champions League Final? · Bayern Munich | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 342 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Atletico | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 336 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will PSG qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · PSG | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 336 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Como qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Como | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 286 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Inter qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Inter | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 250 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Atletico | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 246 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Napoli | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 188 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Manchester City | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 184 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Bayern Munich | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 171 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United qualify for the Champions League Semifinals? · Manchester United | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 165 | Apr 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Real Betis qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Real Betis | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 164 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Villarreal qualify for the Champions League Final? · Villarreal | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 159 | May 20, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Barcelona | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 158 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Arsenal | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 135 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Arsenal | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 133 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Barcelona | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 132 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Real Madrid | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 116 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Manchester City | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 97 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Porto qualify for the Champions League Quarterfinals? · Porto | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 85 | Apr 01, 00:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · Atletico | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 85 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
| Will AEK Athens qualify for the Champions League Round of 16? · AEK Athens | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 74 | Mar 11, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 144 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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