Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Monthly Unemployment on Kalshi
If the Canada unemployment rate is above 7.1% for November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 76 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 35.0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 24,694 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 2.9% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 18,760 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 3.3% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,451 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,023 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 3.2% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,850 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.1% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 4,668 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 3.1% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,292 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 2.6% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,059 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 34.5% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,975 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 2.7% | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,791 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 4.9% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,782 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.4% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,694 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 2.8% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,385 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 32.5% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,216 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Australia unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.2% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,852 | Nov 19, 00:30 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 4.6% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,584 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 31.5% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,482 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 34.0% | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,395 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 3.4% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,000 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 4.8% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 993 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.3% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 971 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 4.7% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 968 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 3.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 875 | Nov 26, 12:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 32.0% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 733 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Brazil unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.2% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 618 | Nov 27, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.2% | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 575 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 33.0% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 517 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Germany unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.4% | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 504 | Nov 27, 08:50 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 31.0% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 460 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026? · Above 33.5% | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 448 | Nov 10, 09:55 UTC |
| Brazil unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.1% | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 353 | Nov 27, 12:55 UTC |
| China unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 332 | Nov 16, 02:55 UTC |
| Canada unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.4% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 306 | Dec 04, 13:25 UTC |
| Canada unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.6% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 264 | Dec 04, 13:25 UTC |
| Canada unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.8% | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 150 | Dec 04, 13:25 UTC |
| Brazil unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 100 | Nov 27, 12:55 UTC |
| Brazil unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 5.3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 67 | Nov 27, 12:55 UTC |
| Germany unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.3% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 56 | Nov 27, 08:50 UTC |
| Australia unemployment rate in October 2026? · Above 4.3% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 53 | Nov 19, 00:30 UTC |
| Canada unemployment rate in November 2026? · Above 6.5% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 50 | Dec 04, 13:25 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 76 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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