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UEFA Nations League Group Winner on Kalshi
If Wales finish first in Group A4 in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, UEFA.
Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.83 | 20.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Spain | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 854 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wales finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Wales | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 384 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Germany finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Germany | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 376 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Norway finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Norway | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 236 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Portugal finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Portugal | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 231 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will France finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A1? · France | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 189 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greece finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Greece | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 13 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Croatia | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 7 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will England finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A3? · England | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 2 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Denmark | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Belgium | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Czechia | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Serbia finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Serbia | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Netherlands | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Turkiye finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Turkiye | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Italy finish first in UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Italy | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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