Markets › Kalshi › Sports
UFC Fight on Kalshi
If Donte Johnson wins the Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports, Tapology, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins · Josh Hokit | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 647,251 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Ciryl Gane wins · Ciryl Gane | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 264,510 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Amanda Nunes wins · Amanda Nunes | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 69,585 | Nov 17, 03:00 UTC |
| Kayla Harrison wins · Kayla Harrison | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 43,727 | Nov 17, 03:00 UTC |
| Uros Medic wins · Uros Medic | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 33,422 | Nov 17, 02:00 UTC |
| Luis Gurule wins · Luis Gurule | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 30,898 | Nov 17, 01:30 UTC |
| Cesar Almeida wins · Cesar Almeida | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 27,762 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Kevin Holland wins · Kevin Holland | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 20,751 | Nov 17, 02:00 UTC |
| Donte Johnson wins · Donte Johnson | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 16,702 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Stephen Thompson wins · Stephen Thompson | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 16,538 | Nov 17, 00:30 UTC |
| Yousri Belgaroui wins · Yousri Belgaroui | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 13,540 | Nov 17, 02:30 UTC |
| Evan Elder wins · Evan Elder | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 11,852 | Nov 16, 22:00 UTC |
| Caio Borralho wins · Caio Borralho | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 10,059 | Nov 17, 02:30 UTC |
| Samuel Sanches wins · Samuel Sanches | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 9,702 | Nov 16, 22:00 UTC |
| Jim Miller wins · Jim Miller | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 8,591 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Drew Dober wins · Drew Dober | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 6,126 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Charles Radtke wins · Charles Radtke | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 5,186 | Nov 17, 00:30 UTC |
| Chris Duncan wins · Chris Duncan | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 4,675 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Macy Chiasson wins · Macy Chiasson | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 4,669 | Nov 16, 22:40 UTC |
| Bilal Hasan wins · Bilal Hasan | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 4,058 | Nov 17, 01:30 UTC |
| Terrance McKinney wins · Terrance McKinney | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 4,049 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Beatriz Mesquita wins · Beatriz Mesquita | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 2,545 | Nov 16, 22:40 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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