Markets › Kalshi › Elections
UK elections on Kalshi
If Restore Britain receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election? · Restore Britain party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 105,146 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reform win the next U.K. election? · Reform party | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 78,400 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative win the next U.K. election? · Conservative party | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 31,875 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Labour win the next U.K. election? · Labour party | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 23,025 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Green win the next U.K. election? · Green party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 21,806 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election? · Liberal Democratic party | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,381 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruv win the next U.K. election? · Bruv party | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 2,138 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Your Party win the next U.K. election? · Your Party | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 355 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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