What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

UK Poll of Polls first place on Kalshi

If Reform UK is first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Politico EU.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Reform UK be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Reform UK	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Restore Britain be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Restore Britain	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Liberal Democrats be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Liberal Democrats	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Labour Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Labour Party	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Green Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Green Party	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Conservative Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Conservative Party	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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