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Which wealth taxes will the UK announce? on Kalshi
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: HM Treasury, UK Parliament Hansard.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026? · Capital Gains Tax Rise | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,159 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026? · Mansion Tax Increase | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 640 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026? · Council Tax Replacement | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 372 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026? · Inheritance Tax Rise | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 360 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026? · Annual Wealth Tax | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 234 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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