What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democrats underperforming Harris 2024 on Kalshi

If Tina Kotek's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Georgia Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State, Florida Department of State, Federal Election Commission, New York State Board of Elections, Oregon Secretary of State, Michigan Department of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Minnesota Secretary of State.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms underperform Kamala Harris in Georgia? · Keisha Lance Bottoms	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,286	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Peggy Flanagan underperform Kamala Harris in Minnesota? · Peggy Flanagan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,495	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will David Jolly underperform Kamala Harris in Florida? · David Jolly	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	11,918	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Abdul El-Sayed underperform Kamala Harris in Michigan? · Abdul El-Sayed	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,355	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala Harris in Florida? · Angie Nixon	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	9,296	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala Harris in Oregon? · Tina Kotek	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,109	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala Harris in New York? · Kathy Hochul	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,213	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala Harris in Maine? · Troy Jackson	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	5,910	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will Chris Pappas underperform Kamala Harris in New Hampshire? · Chris Pappas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,602	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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