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Which companies will the US take a stake in on Kalshi
If any part of the United States federal government has taken or announced it is taking a stake in Neros Technologies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Financial Times, ABC, The Information, MSNBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, official announcements or filings by <body> or <entity>, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines? · Spirit Airlines | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 317,532 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril? · Anduril | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 216,092 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic? · Anthropic | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 104,337 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity? · OpenAI | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 98,237 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir? · Palantir | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 85,105 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia? · Nvidia | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 64,991 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin? · Lockheed Martin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 62,496 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC? · TSMC | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 33,381 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron? · Micron | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 32,465 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ? · IonQ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 31,998 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing? · Boeing | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 29,848 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly? · Eli Lilly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 16,906 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies? · Neros Technologies | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 13,327 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Unusual Machines? · Unusual Machines | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 12,632 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Pfizer? · Pfizer | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 12,038 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance? · TikTok US | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,058 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan? · Freeport-McMoRan | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 9,431 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works? · Performance Drone Works | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7,641 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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