What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.52.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

US Iran nuclear deal on Kalshi

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

56% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Jan 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	2,040,176	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Dec 1, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	703,672	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Jan 20, 2029	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	148,900	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Jan 1, 2028	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	145,304	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Mar 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	107,316	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Feb 1, 2027	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	57,880	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Jul 1, 2027	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	87	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? · Before Oct 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	15	Oct 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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