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U.S. corn yield on Kalshi
If U.S. corn yield per harvested acre for the 2026/27 marketing year is exactly 181.2 bu/acre, as reported in the January 2027 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. corn yield per harvested acre for the 2026/27 marketing year be below 181.2 bu/acre? · Below 181.2 bu/acre | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 581 | Jan 12, 16:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. corn yield per harvested acre for the 2026/27 marketing year be above 181.2 bu/acre? · Above 181.2 bu/acre | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 505 | Jan 12, 16:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. corn yield per harvested acre for the 2026/27 marketing year be exactly 181.2 bu/acre? · Exactly 181.2 bu/acre | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 130 | Jan 12, 16:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.