Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USDBRL Weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the USDBRL opening candlestick is Above 5.545 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDBRL.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.545 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.545 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 36 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.525 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.525 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 35 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.523 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.523 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 16 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.521 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.521 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 15 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.543 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.543 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.541 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.541 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.539 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.539 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.537 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.537 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.535 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.535 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.533 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.533 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.531 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.531 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.529 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.529 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.527 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.527 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.519 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.519 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.517 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.517 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.515 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.515 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.513 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.513 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.511 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.511 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.509 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.509 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.507 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.507 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.505 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.505 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.503 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.503 | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.501 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.501 | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.499 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.499 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.497 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.497 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.495 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.495 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.493 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.493 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.491 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.491 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.489 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.489 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDBRL be Above 5.487 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 5.487 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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