Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USDJPY Weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the USDJPY opening candlestick is Above 157.937 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDJPY.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.937 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.937 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.935 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.935 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.933 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.933 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.931 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.931 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.929 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.929 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.927 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.927 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.925 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.925 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.923 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.923 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.921 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.921 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.919 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.919 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.917 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.917 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.915 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.915 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.913 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.913 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.911 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.911 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.909 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.909 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.907 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.907 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.905 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.905 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.903 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.903 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.901 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.901 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDJPY be Above 157.899 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 157.899 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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