Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USD/MXN after economic events on Kalshi
If the USD/MXN exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 19.6500 at Dec 10, 2026 at 9:30am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDMXN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 189 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.6500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.6500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.5500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.5500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.4500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.4500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.3500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.3500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.2500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.2500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.1500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.0500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 19.0500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.9500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.9500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.8500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.8500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.7500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.7500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.6500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.6500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.5500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.5500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.4500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.4500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.3500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.3500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.2500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.2500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.1500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.0500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 18.0500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.9500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 17.9500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.8500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 17.8500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.7500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 17.7500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.6500 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 17.6500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.6500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.6500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.5500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.5500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.4500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.4500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.3500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.3500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.2500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.2500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.1500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 19.0500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 19.0500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.9500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.9500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.8500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.8500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.7500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.7500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.6500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.6500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.5500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.5500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.4500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.4500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.3500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.3500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.2500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.2500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.1500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 18.0500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 18.0500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.9500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 17.9500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN be above 17.8500 on Nov 26 at 4:00pm ET? · Above 17.8500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 189 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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