Markets › Kalshi › Economics
US used cars and trucks CPI in [month] on Kalshi
If the US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 is above 188, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 184? · Above 184 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,105 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 181? · Above 181 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 5,022 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 185? · Above 185 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,161 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 180? · Above 180 | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,285 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 183? · Above 183 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 2,028 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 182? · Above 182 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,969 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 179? · Above 179 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,249 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 187? · Above 187 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 263 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 186? · Above 186 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 202 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 178? · Above 178 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 191 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 be above 188? · Above 188 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 60 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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