What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 80¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.72.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 81% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 80%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

US gasoline CPI in [month] on Kalshi

If the Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 is above 384, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

80%

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

41% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
79¢ (now)	1.2¢	$0.73	80.2%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 380? · Above 380	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	34,621	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 381? · Above 381	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	6,813	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 385? · Above 385	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	6,652	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 335? · Above 335	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,169	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 350? · Above 350	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,886	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 345? · Above 345	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,886	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 330? · Above 330	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,675	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 340? · Above 340	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,669	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 355? · Above 355	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,452	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 365? · Above 365	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,720	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 360? · Above 360	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,696	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 390? · Above 390	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	891	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 370? · Above 370	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	616	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 400? · Above 400	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	224	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 382? · Above 382	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	166	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 375? · Above 375	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	67%	120	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 405? · Above 405	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	100	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 410? · Above 410	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	99	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 384? · Above 384	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	50	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 383? · Above 383	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for October 2026 be above 395? · Above 395	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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