What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 52¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.70.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 53% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 52%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

U.S. Leading Economic Index change on Kalshi

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Conference Board.

Market says (typical open contract)

52%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

97% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
52¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.68	53.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0%	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	1,136	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above 0.3%? · Above 0.3%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	903	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above 0.2%? · Above 0.2%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	884	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above -0.2%? · Above -0.2%	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	76%	865	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above -0.4%? · Above -0.4%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	759	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above -0.1%? · Above -0.1%	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	574	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above -0.3%? · Above -0.3%	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	226	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for October 2026 be above 0.1%? · Above 0.1%	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	0	Nov 19, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.