Markets › Kalshi › Politics
What will happen with USMCA this year? on Kalshi
If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Verge, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027? · Formal 16-year extension | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,331 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? · U.S. withdrawal notice | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,399 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027? · Formal USMCA amendment | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,977 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? · Canadian withdrawal notice | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,766 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? · Mexican withdrawal notice | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,005 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? · Trilateral revised deal | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 695 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? · U.S.–Mexico interim agreement | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 572 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? · U.S.–Canada interim agreement | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 401 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.