Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Turnout in US elections on Kalshi
If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 900000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1200000? · Above 1.2M | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 932 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1250000? · Above 1.25M | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 633 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1150000? · Above 1.15M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 542 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1450000? · Above 1.45M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 522 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1400000? · Above 1.4M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 500 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1100000? · Above 1.1M | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 362 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1300000? · Above 1.3M | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 312 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 900000? · Above 900K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 251 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1000000? · Above 1.0M | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 245 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1050000? · Above 1.05M | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 129 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 1350000? · Above 1.35M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 89 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 950000? · Above 950K | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 51 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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