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Valorant game winner on Kalshi
If Fourdaboy wins the Asia Pacific Predator League Thailand 2027: 1DAY24 vs. Fourdaboy Valorant match originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 7:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Valorant, Gamers World, BO3.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oasis Gaming wins · Oasis Gaming | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 996 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Maxxing wins · Maxxing | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 877 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Aurora Gaming wins · Aurora Gaming | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 83 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Surprise wins · Surprise | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 62 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Pixel Lumina wins · Pixel Lumina | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 27 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Fourdaboy wins · Fourdaboy | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| 1DAY24 wins · 1DAY24 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Sharper Esport wins · Sharper Esport | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| GODX wins · GODX | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Xipto Esports wins · Xipto Esports | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| OneOPae wins · OneOPae | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Salamander wins · Salamander | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| NongKaiTod wins · NongKaiTod | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| xXxMasterProMegaTeamxXx wins · xXxMasterProMegaTeamxXx | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| F9 EICAR wins · F9 EICAR | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Rojali wins · Rojali | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| BOOM Esports wins · BOOM Esports | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| GAS Esports wins · GAS Esports | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| Alter Ego x Kertanegara wins · Alter Ego x Kertanegara | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| Straight outta PIK wins · Straight outta PIK | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| Hertz Esport wins · Hertz Esport | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| Seventh Letter Gaming wins · Seventh Letter Gaming | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Frankfurt Bahnhofsviertel wins · Frankfurt Bahnhofsviertel | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| CGN Esports wins · CGN Esports | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Gesichtenhausen wins · Gesichtenhausen | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 10, 17:00 UTC |
| Enisorail wins · Enisorail | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 10, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.