What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 38¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 39% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 38%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Chris Van Hollen announces presidential run by...? on Kalshi

If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Politico, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

38%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

75% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
38¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.17	39.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	15,806	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	948	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	427	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	400	May 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	201	Jun 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	155	Oct 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	141	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	10	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	0	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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