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U.S. visa revocations on Kalshi
If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 400,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Department of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 300,000 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 196 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 150,000 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 400000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 400,000 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 250,000 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 200,000 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026? · At least 100,000 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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