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Vote percentages in US general elections on Kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Scott Colom in the 2026 Mississippi Senate election is 49% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official government website of <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 9392 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alan Wilson receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election? · At least 64% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,502 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Barr receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 Kentucky Senate election? · At least 62% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 22,155 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Byron Donalds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election? · At least 54% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 21,788 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cait Conley receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-17 House election? · At least 50% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 21,719 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Peggy Flanagan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Senate election? · At least 48% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 20,766 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ashley Moody receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Senate election? · At least 54% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 20,684 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ashley Moody receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Senate election? · At least 52% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 19,141 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruce Blakeman receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election? · At least 50% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,243 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott receive at least 53% of the popular vote in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election? · At least 53% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 16,750 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election? · At least 3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 16,710 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Colom receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Mississippi Senate election? · At least 48% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,287 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial election? · At least 62% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,166 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 Texas Senate election? · At least 46% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,047 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Hilton receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial election? · At least 36% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 15,974 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Johnson receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election? · At least 64% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 15,149 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Byron Donalds receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election? · At least 44% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,779 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Troy Jackson receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election? · At least 48% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 14,388 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kurt Alme receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election? · At least 45% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,296 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Ford receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election? · At least 50% | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 14,098 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kurt Alme receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election? · At least 40% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 14,071 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election? · At least 52% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,140 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election? · At least 48% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 12,599 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Rogers receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 Michigan Senate election? · At least 56% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,428 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Smith receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 NJ-04 House election? · At least 62% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,234 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will John Nagel receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 MN-05 House election? · At least 18% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,212 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brenton Awa receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 HI-02 House election? · At least 24% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 12,135 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Herrera receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-23 House election? · At least 60% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,939 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Krzeczkowski receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-07 House election? · At least 6% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 11,870 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Brown receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Texas Senate election? · At least 3% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 11,722 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mary Peltola receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election? · At least 50% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 11,682 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bobby Pulido receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-15 House election? · At least 56% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,425 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Byron Donalds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election? · At least 60% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 11,399 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gary Cordery receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election? · At least 32% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 11,253 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michele Tafoya receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Senate election? · At least 46% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,040 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bobby Pulido receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-15 House election? · At least 54% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,972 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Susan Collins receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election? · At least 52% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,782 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stacy Garrity receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election? · At least 50% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,719 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nickie Kane receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 House election? · At least 7% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 10,710 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Johnson receive at least 63% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election? · At least 63% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 10,680 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Flippo receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 NV-02 House election? · At least 52% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,603 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 9392 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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