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Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake? on Kalshi
If Thom Tillis votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Senate.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell vote for Kari Lake? · Mitch McConnell | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,590 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rand Paul vote for Kari Lake? · Rand Paul | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 6,210 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Fetterman vote for Kari Lake? · John Fetterman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,717 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Cassidy vote for Kari Lake? · Bill Cassidy | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,557 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thom Tillis vote for Kari Lake? · Thom Tillis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 4,288 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Susan Collins vote for Kari Lake? · Susan Collins | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 3,842 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego vote for Kari Lake? · Ruben Gallego | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,321 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Kari Lake? · Lisa Murkowski | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,906 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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