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Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton? on Kalshi
If Thom Tillis votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Senate.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton? · Mitch McConnell | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,506 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton? · Thom Tillis | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 886 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Cassidy vote for Heidi Overton? · Bill Cassidy | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 782 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton? · Susan Collins | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 16 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton? · Rand Paul | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Kaine vote for Heidi Overton? · Tim Kaine | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego vote for Heidi Overton? · Ruben Gallego | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maggie Hassan vote for Heidi Overton? · Maggie Hassan | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton? · Lisa Murkowski | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Fetterman vote for Heidi Overton? · John Fetterman | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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