Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Spanish general election party vote share on Kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spanish Ministry of the Interior.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 31 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 50% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 19,802 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 24% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 10,605 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 15% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,298 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 37% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 37% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5,160 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 13% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 13% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,972 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 30% | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 2,933 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 36% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,464 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 22% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 689 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 28% | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 498 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 31% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 401 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 34% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 400 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 16% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 390 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 19% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 19% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 299 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 28% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 292 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 26% | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 239 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 27% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 27% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 210 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 25% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 200 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 18% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 181 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 20% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 127 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 17% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 17% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 114 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 14% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 14% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 99 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 31% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 47 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 21% | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 39 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 33% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 33% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 25 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 29% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 24 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 26% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 35% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 32% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 30% | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 23% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · At least 21% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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