Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Waitaki by-election winner on Kalshi
If Richard Vinbrux wins the 2026 Waitaki District Council Ōamaru Ward by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Waitaki District Council.
Market says (typical open contract)
75%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 75¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.88 | 76.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keith Marshall win the 2026 Waitaki District Council Ōamaru Ward by-election? · Keith Marshall | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 200 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Vinbrux win the 2026 Waitaki District Council Ōamaru Ward by-election? · Richard Vinbrux | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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