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Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment on Kalshi
If BLS reports Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 is above 235,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 79¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.73 | 80.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 255,000 jobs? · Above 255,000 jobs | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 93,540 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 240,000 jobs? · Above 240,000 jobs | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 82,691 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 270,000 jobs? · Above 270,000 jobs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 55,367 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 260,000 jobs? · Above 260,000 jobs | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 51,891 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 250,000 jobs? · Above 250,000 jobs | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 51,511 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 265,000 jobs? · Above 265,000 jobs | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 46,256 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 275,000 jobs? · Above 275,000 jobs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 28,605 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 245,000 jobs? · Above 245,000 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 21,790 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 280,000 jobs? · Above 280,000 jobs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 21,704 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
| Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 235,000 jobs? · Above 235,000 jobs | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,409 | Feb 28, 16:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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