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World Soccer Cup Host Country on Kalshi

If USA is announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg, NBC, The Washington Post, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, The Information, Politico, Axios, MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, CBS.

Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)0.5¢$3.257.5%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will USA be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · USA36¢36%1.6¢—72%11,359Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · China19¢19%1.1¢—38%5,006Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay17¢17%1.0¢—34%1,695Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Australia or New Zealand16¢16%0.9¢—32%1,234Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Cambodia be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Cambodia3¢3%0.2¢—6%635Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Egypt be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Egypt2¢2%0.1¢—4%625Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will France, Belgium or the Netherlands be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · France, Belgium or the Netherlands11¢11%0.7¢—21%572Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Panama or Costa Rica be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Panama or Costa Rica2¢2%0.1¢—4%544Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will United Kingdom or Ireland be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · United Kingdom or Ireland6¢6%0.4¢—13%344Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Germany be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Germany5¢5%0.3¢—10%185Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Italy6¢6%0.4¢—11%109Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Brazil, Colombia or Peru be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Brazil, Colombia or Peru10¢10%0.6¢—19%75Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Switzerland or Austria be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Switzerland or Austria4¢4%0.3¢—9%64Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Greece or Turkey be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Greece or Turkey3¢3%0.2¢—7%63Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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