Markets › Kalshi › Politics
White House visitors on Kalshi
If Abelardo de la Espriella visits the White House after Jun 29, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Office of the Presidency, The Information, Bloomberg, CBS, The Washington Post, AP, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, the President of the United States.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · John Ternus | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 16,699 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Reza Pahlavi | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 14,095 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Carney visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Mark Carney | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 7,682 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Hakeem Jeffries | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 7,316 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Vladimir Putin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,917 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abiy Ahmed visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Abiy Ahmed | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,662 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Pope Leo XIV | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,502 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Anutin Charnvirakul | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 5,450 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Abdel Fattah al-Sisi | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,390 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Gavin Newsom | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4,687 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Claudia Sheinbaum | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,606 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,318 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Cristiano Ronaldo | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,018 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Adams visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Eric Adams | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,856 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Barack Obama | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,003 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Joe Biden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,656 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jerome Powell visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Jerome Powell | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,314 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Abelardo de la Espriella | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,106 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lionel Messi visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Lionel Messi | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 695 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hun Manet visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Hun Manet | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 660 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Jaxson Dart | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 424 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bola Ahmed Tinubu visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Bola Ahmed Tinubu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 234 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.