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Wingstop Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Wingstop Inc. reports Above -12% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 44¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.96 | 45.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3525 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3525 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,297 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3475 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3475 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,335 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3500 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3500 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,256 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -5% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -5% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,225 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3425 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3425 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 910 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -4% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -4% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 772 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -2% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -2% | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 761 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -6% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -6% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 712 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 0% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 467 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -1% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -1% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 428 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -3% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -3% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 395 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3450 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3450 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 242 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3550 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3550 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 228 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -9% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -9% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 180 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -8% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -8% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 150 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3400 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3400 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 27 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3575 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3575 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 23 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above 3600 total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 3600 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -12% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -12% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -11% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -11% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -10% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -10% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Wingstop Inc. report Above -7% domestic same store sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -7% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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