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Women's March Madness 1 Seeds on Kalshi
If West Virginia is selected as a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will UCLA be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · UCLA | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,618 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · South Carolina | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 43 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USC be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · USC | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 12 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Kentucky | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · UConn | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 3 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Iowa St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will West Virginia be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · West Virginia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Washington | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Villanova be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Villanova | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Utah | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · North Carolina | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Texas Tech | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Texas | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Tennessee | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will TCU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · TCU | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stanford be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Stanford | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SMU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · SMU | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Ohio St. | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Oregon | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Oklahoma | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nebraska be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Nebraska | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Notre Dame | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · North Carolina St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Michigan St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Ole Miss | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Minnesota | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Michigan | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Maryland be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Maryland | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LSU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · LSU | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Louisville | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Iowa | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Canyon be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Grand Canyon | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Duke | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Baylor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a #1 seed for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Tournament? · Alabama | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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