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Reach March Madness Round on Kalshi
If West Virginia qualifies for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 620 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Virginia qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Virginia | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 80 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Quarterfinals? · Kentucky | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 74 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Texas Tech | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 65 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Fairfield qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Fairfield | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 51 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · South Carolina | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 50 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · UConn | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 50 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Championship Game? · South Carolina | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 46 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · North Carolina | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 40 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Virginia · Virginia | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 39 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 16? · Kentucky | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 32 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Notre Dame | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 32 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Semifinals? · Iowa | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 25 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Quarterfinals? · Louisville | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 21 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Mississippi St. · Mississippi St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 18 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Mississippi St. · Mississippi St. | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 17 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 16? · Louisville | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 17 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Semifinals? · Louisville | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 11 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Charleston · Charleston | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 8 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Kentucky | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 6 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USC qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Championship Game? · USC | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 5 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 16? · Oklahoma | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 3 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will TCU qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · TCU | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 3 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 16? · Oregon | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LSU qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Quarterfinals? · LSU | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina St. qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · North Carolina St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Illinois | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Maryland qualify for the 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 32? · Maryland | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Apr 26, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: UNLV · UNLV | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Syracuse · Syracuse | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: South Dakota St. · South Dakota St. | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Penn St. · Penn St. | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Montana St. · Montana St. | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Missouri St. · Missouri St. | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Arkansas · Arkansas | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Apr 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: South Florida · South Florida | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Georgia · Georgia | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Purdue · Purdue | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: UMass · UMass | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Kansas · Kansas | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Seton Hall · Seton Hall | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 620 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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