What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.54.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Commodities

WTIDIRY on Kalshi

If the settlement price of WTI Crude Oil on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST is above 95 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ICE.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

55% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the price of WTI oil be above 90 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 90 or above	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	42,768	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 85 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 85 or above	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	21,419	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 80 or above	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	21,137	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 100 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 100 or above	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	18,164	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 105 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 105 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	18,006	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 75 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 75 or above	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	16,199	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 95 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 95 or above	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	14,851	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 120 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 120 or above	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	14,080	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 110 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 110 or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	11,204	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 125 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 125 or above	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	9,155	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC
Will the price of WTI oil be above 115 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST? · 115 or above	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	5,968	Dec 31, 19:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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