Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
WTI Hourly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for WTI Oil on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM EST is above 83.49 USD/barrel, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - WTI.
Market says (typical open contract)
39%
Median YES price across 136 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 39¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.14 | 40.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.49 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 278 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.59 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 232 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.79 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 175 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.29 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 158 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.69 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 151 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.19 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 150 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.39 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 138 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.09 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 120 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.19 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.29 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.39 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.49 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.59 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.69 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.79 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.89 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $83.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.09 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.19 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.29 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.39 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.49 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.59 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.69 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.79 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $84.89 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.89 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $85.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.09 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.19 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.29 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.39 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.59 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.69 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.79 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.89 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 86.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $86.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the WTI Oil close price be above 87.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $87.19 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 136 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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