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Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced? on Kalshi
If the U.S. Department of the Interior or the U.S. National Park Service announces an agreement to transfer federal land within Yosemite National Park or an easement over that land to Kingsbarn Realty Capital or an entity it controls in exchange for land before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. National Park Service.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 207 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 60 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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